Category Archives: Risk Analysis

Cybersecurity Lessons from the Pandemic: Plans, Exercises and Warnings

– Like many others during this stay-at-home period, I have been sorting through old articles and reports, culling out those that are no longer of value. But, in the process, I came across a number of documents relevant to the current pandemic. One such document was “Scenario Update 3” of a…

Cybersecurity Lessons from the Pandemic: Perception of Risk

– The more “mature” among us may recall when decision-making under uncertainty was based on the concept of “rational economic man.” We estimated or calculated the probability and amount of a loss (or gain) of various courses of action, multiplied the numbers together to arrive at a range of…

Cybersecurity Lessons from the Pandemic – Positive and Negative Feedback

– Systems use negative feedback in order to converge to stability and equilibrium (a positive quest). Positive-feedback systems diverge, which leads to instability and sometimes surging out of control (usually a negative outcome). Negative feedback inhibits and positive feedback amplifies. Each has…

Cybersecurity Lessons from the Pandemic: Models and Predictions

– There are a number of different types of models—and the output from each must be viewed and used differently depending on the form of the model. First, you have relationships derived from correlations—they show how one variable changes in concert with other variables, but do not claim…

Cybersecurity Lessons from the Pandemic: Data – Part 1

– The collection and reporting of data relating to the coronavirus pandemic and related medical research and practices are in a shambles. For example, a June 7, 2020 article by Jason Slotkin cites several reasons for undercounting cases.[i] One is that testing was impeded by public officials and…